Textile companies returning from their holidays may face not only soaring raw material prices, but also potentially rising dyeing costs.
The continued increase in dye prices, and the leading manufacturers' price hikes, are not without reason. The reasons for the dye price increases are somewhat similar to those for the recent rise in polyester filament prices, primarily due to rising costs. The core intermediate for these dyes, the "reducing agent," has seen its price skyrocket from last year's lows. The "reducing agent" (chemical name: 2-amino-4-acetamidoanisole) is a key raw material in the production of blue and black disperse dyes (such as Disperse Deep Blue HGL). In the production of these specific dye varieties, the cost of the reducing agent accounts for a very large proportion. Once the price of the reducing agent surges (for example, from tens of thousands of yuan/ton to hundreds of thousands of yuan/ton), the production cost of the dye will directly soar. According to past data, for every 60,000 yuan/ton increase in the price of the reducing agent, the cost per ton of disperse dye increases by approximately 5,000 yuan. The reducing agent has high technical and environmental barriers, thus it is scarce, and its price is prone to significant fluctuations due to various factors. Furthermore, since 2025, the prices of basic chemical raw materials have generally risen, providing a floor for dye prices. For example, the prices of light and heavy alkalis have increased by about 70% from their lows at the end of the year, the average price of acetic acid has also increased significantly, and the prices of raw materials such as sulfuric acid have also shown an upward trend. With flour prices rising, bread prices are unlikely to fall. Although dyeing factories are currently mostly closed for the holidays and cannot adjust prices, dyeing costs will likely increase significantly after the holidays due to rising costs.
When textile workers return to work after the Spring Festival, they may find that the various low prices they have become accustomed to in the past few years may truly be gone forever. The low prices of the past few years were largely due to the rapid growth of production capacity in the short term and the involution caused by a series of black swan events in overseas markets. Because production was so large, the only way to guide the market to absorb excess capacity was through low prices. However, the market's threshold for low prices has been continuously raised with each price reduction, driving prices lower and lower, and profits have been continuously eroded in each round of involution, even leading to losses. A special commentator article published in *Qiushi* magazine points out that the current low price level is due to a combination of factors, emphasizing the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies to promote a return to a reasonable range, which can be seen as the government setting the tone for the macroeconomic situation in 2026. The rebound in the prices of various commodities since the end of 2025 is also largely related to this; the unreasonably low prices of the past two years may be a thing of the past.
However, in the past few years, many textile companies, in order to cope with the highly competitive market, chose to match their business models with the market environment. Once costs rise significantly, the old model may become mismatched in the short term. During the process of rising costs, in order to avoid losses, companies will inevitably raise the prices of their raw fabrics and finished products. This will severely test the comprehensive capabilities of enterprises and will greatly exacerbate the already evident Matthew effect, accelerating market clearing and reshuffling. Consumers, facing rising prices, will inevitably place higher demands on products, which will also pose greater challenges to textile companies.
