As the market enters the "Golden Nine" consumption season, the terminal orders of the chemical fiber industry have picked up, and the start-up load of the polyester and weaving industries has begun to pick up slightly due to this impact. As of September 6, the domestic polyester and terminal weaving start-up loads were 90.84% and 72%, respectively, an increase of 8.28 percentage points and 10 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Since the second half of the year, with the seasonal recovery of consumption and the improvement of market expectations, the orders of the chemical fiber industry have begun to increase, and enterprises have taken the initiative to stock up for production, which has boosted the start-up load of downstream enterprises to gradually pick up. At present, the chemical fiber industry is still in the peak consumption season, some fabrics are sold very well, the market is in a state of hot sales, and the overall market demand is expected to maintain a good pattern. However, there are still uncertainties in the downstream demand of chemical fiber: First, although the goods are in good condition, the current peak season demand is gradually released, and it is difficult for the downstream demand to rise further, and the demand enters the off-season at the end of October, and the terminal demand is seasonally weak. It is unavoidable; second, although the recent market orders are good, there are no large orders, and downstream companies are still mainly replenishing goods that are just in demand.
With the increase of downstream orders, the destocking of the polyester industry began to accelerate. At present, the inventory of polyester filament is at a low level, prompting polyester enterprises to increase their load and increase production, and downstream enterprises are actively stocking up. As of August 31, polyester filament POY inventory was 10.8 days, down 17.7 days from the same period last year, down 62.11% year-on-year: polyester filament DTY inventory was 23.7 days, down 11.1 days from the same period last year, down 31.90% year-on-year; polyester long The silk FDY inventory was 16.5 days, a decrease of 13.2 days compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%.
Although the start-up load of the polyester industry is at a high level, the overall profitability of the polyester industry is not ideal, and most products are at a loss. As of the end of August, the average losses of polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester filament POY, polyester filament FDY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester industrial yarn were 45 yuan/ton, 235 yuan/ton, 125 yuan/ton, and 85 yuan respectively. /ton, 230 yuan/ton, 585 yuan/ton. Among the major products in the polyester industry, only polyester filament DTY is currently profitable, with an average profit of 225 yuan/ton.
On the whole, the downstream polyester and weaving industries of the chemical fiber industry are in peak season, the start-up load is at a high level, and market orders are acceptable. However, the operating conditions of the polyester industry are not ideal. The main reason for maintaining high operating conditions is that orders are still acceptable. As the peak consumption season comes to an end, the weakening of the demand side will inevitably lead to a decrease in operating load, and the demand is not sustainable. There is not much room for PTA to go up.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the trend of international oil prices is relatively strong, PTA processing fees are at a low level, and PTA prices have the power to recover upwards. At the same time, the chemical fiber industry has entered the peak consumption season, and the downstream polyester and weaving industries of PTA still have orders, and the cost can be transmitted downward. Under the combined effect of the above two factors, the price of PTA rose passively. In addition, the domestic PTA start-up load is at a high level, and the downstream demand is acceptable. Although there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand of PTA at present, the problem of oversupply of PTA will emerge as the consumption seasonally weakens. Therefore, the PTA price continues to lack momentum, and the price is likely to still run near the cost line.
Based on the above judgment, the author believes that the strong short-term international oil price pattern will not change, PTA processing fees will still be low, and PTA prices will still have further upward momentum. However, PTA itself has no contradiction between supply and demand. As processing fees are restored, there is insufficient room for continued upward movement. Once crude oil falls due to the strong US dollar and weak consumption, PTA prices will also likely weaken.
