As a major chemical fiber product, spandex has ushered in a period of rapid growth in its production capacity in recent years. By July 2024, the domestic production capacity has exceeded 1.34 million tons, and the spandex industry has fallen into homogeneous competition. Functional products such as differentiated and recycled spandex have become a new track in the spandex field.
In recent years, my country's spandex production capacity has grown rapidly. According to data from Sino-Business Network, in 2023, the global spandex production capacity will be 1.635 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The incremental contribution is concentrated in the Chinese mainland market, India, and Vietnam. Among them, my country's total spandex production capacity will reach 1.243 million tons, accounting for 76.0% of the global production capacity. In terms of production, my country's spandex production will be 935,000 tons in 2023, and the apparent demand will be 910,000 tons. According to Baichuan data, as of July 2024, the global spandex production capacity will be about 1.74 million tons, and my country's spandex production capacity will reach 1.3454 million tons, accounting for 77.3% of the global production capacity.
With the rapid growth of production capacity, the demand for spandex has somewhat failed to keep up. In December, the downstream weaving load of spandex also began to gradually decline, the sales of spandex factories began to slow down, and the prices of spandex specifications were difficult to boost. Some factories began to accumulate inventory slightly, and the price of spandex yarn has fluctuated and fallen since March this year. Foreign trade orders are not followed up smoothly. From January to October 2024, the cumulative exports of spandex increased by 9% year-on-year, but it is still less than the export volume of the high-prosperity spandex market in 2021 during the same period. The domestic "Golden September and Silver October" peak season performed generally. Now that December has entered the domestic weaving off-season, products such as polyester and nylon yarn have fallen to lows in recent years in late November. In addition, the inventory recovery of some weaving factories has led to a significant decline in the willingness to continue to make inventory, and some machines have begun to reduce their load. According to Longzhong statistics, as of December 5, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 65.69%.
Weaving orders are still showing a trend of differentiation. Winter fabrics from some manufacturers can still be supported. At the same time, inquiries for early spring fabrics have been issued, and the operating rate has remained stable. However, the new orders received by most manufacturers in December have shown a clear fault trend, and the industry's operating rate has fluctuated and declined, and the number of shutdowns in the workshop has increased compared with the previous month. With the end of winter orders in the factory, the implementation of new orders is weak, and finished product inventory has accumulated. It is expected that if there is no obvious positive support from orders after mid-month, the risk aversion of weaving manufacturers may heat up, and the industry's operating rate will be expected to decline strongly. The weaving load has declined, and the rigid demand for spandex has slowed down significantly.
