Downstream textile industry still has good support for polyester to welcome important holidays

    Entering the fourth quarter, the textile industry is facing holidays such as Double Eleven, Christmas, and New Year's Day, and a good consumer side has also formed good support for polyester. We expect polyester production to remain at a relatively high level, with a decline occurring around the Spring Festival and on the seventh and eighth days of the lunar new year.
    Entering the fourth quarter, feedback on weaving will be earlier than polyester. In the fourth quarter, many small factories have fewer spring orders, and they will choose to implement production cuts in advance. The operating rate will slightly decline, and the time point for a significant decline in production will occur around the 15th of the twelfth lunar month. After the basic lunar new year, many factories have already been on vacation, and the upcoming year's meeting will continue to resume production after the 15th of the first lunar month.
    Overall, PTA showed a cumulative rhythm in the fourth quarter, but the cumulative amplitude was not significant. If the demand for polyester remains high and PTA starts lower, the market cannot rule out the possibility of phased destocking. We need to pay attention to the situation of oligopoly PTA factories controlling spot supply under low processing differences. From 2023 to 2024, there will be large-scale new production capacity put into operation, and in the long run, PTA will still be surplus in the overall context.