According to recent U.S. media reports, China’s share of U.S. imports of goods fell to third place for the first time in nearly 15 years. In 2009, China surpassed Canada to become the largest importer of goods to the United States, but now China has been surpassed by Mexico and Canada.
| Sino-US trade data
Trade statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce show that from January to May 2023, the United States imported goods from China to US$168.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, accounting for 13% of its total imports, and 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period in 2022.
At the same time, U.S. imports from Mexico increased by 5% year-on-year, from US$184.5 billion in the same period in 2022 to US$195 billion, and the proportion increased from 14% to 15%.
The statistics of the United States are different from those of China. The website of the Ministry of Commerce of China shows that in the first five months of 2023, the total trade volume between China and the United States was US$200.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15%.
If we look at Chinese statistics, Mexico has not replaced China as the largest importer of goods to the United States.
According to statistics from China Customs, China's total import and export value of goods trade in the first half of 2023 was 20.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, of which imports and exports to the United States were 2.25 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.4%.
In dollar terms, China-US trade volume in the first half of 2023 was US$327.264 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%. Among them, China's exports to the United States fell by 17.9% year-on-year, and China's imports from the United States fell by 3.7% year-on-year.
| Reasons for data discrepancy display
The difference in statistical data between China and the United States is caused by some technical factors, mainly for two reasons.
First, the United States calculates exports based on the price of offshore goods and calculates imports based on the price of landed goods. There is a difference between CIF and FOB prices. One is freight, such as air transportation and ocean transportation freight, and the other is insurance.
In addition, there may be some errors in re-export trade. For example, if a batch of goods is re-exported through Singapore, China may count it as exports to Singapore. However, when traders transfer the goods to the United States, the United States will count them as exports from Singapore according to the rules of origin. Imported from China.
Although there are differences in the data between the two parties, it also reflects to a certain extent that the peak of Sino-US trade is no longer there. This trend change is driven by economic cycles, trade rules and geopolitical factors.
The decline in China's exports to the United States is consistent with the economic cycle of developed countries.
Data show that since 2023, China's exports to many European countries have declined to varying degrees, and China's export curves to the United States and EU countries have moved almost simultaneously. This is partly due to the negative impact of interest rate hikes on the economic growth of developed countries.
| Trade chain reorganization
In contrast, China and most other emerging countries have surplus red lines, and more and more Chinese exports are flowing to regions such as the Middle East and Latin America, reflecting China's investment in natural resources and strengthening mutual ties. Economic ties.
The surge in exports to Russia also reflects the close ties between China and Russia, as well as the impact of Western sanctions on Russian imports.
China has also been successful in exporting cheap electric cars and smartphones to emerging markets, crowding out expensive Western alternatives. In the first quarter of 2023, China surpassed Japan and became the world's largest automobile exporter.
China continues to dominate global trade as it penetrates markets outside the United States.
World Trade Organization data shows that China's share of global merchandise exports in 2022 will be 14.4%, higher than 13% the year before the epidemic and 11% in 2012.
In 2022, the United States accounted for 8.3% of total global merchandise exports, and Germany accounted for 6.6%.
It is worth noting that the trade volume of Mexico, the manufacturing center of the new trade order that China and the United States are trying to create, has maintained a growth trend in 2023. Although the year-on-year growth rate is lower than in 2022, this growth may explain to a certain extent the Sino-U.S. Gap in trade volume statistics.
In the past few years, due to rising costs and the impact of tariffs, many Chinese companies have built factories in Mexico. Although they have gradually increased the proportion of local procurement, many key components still have to be imported from China.
These parts and components imported from China are processed into finished products in Mexico and exported to the United States, achieving a certain degree of indirect export, which may result in some Chinese products not being counted among exports to the United States. Similarly, this explanation also applies to the growth of China's exports to some ASEAN countries.
| China’s textile import and export need to develop new opportunities
China's foreign trade is dominated by manufacturing products. It exports a large number of textiles, electronic products, and machinery and equipment, which occupies a very important position in the global supply chain. In addition, the West has already invested countless manufacturing costs in China. , these investments are still difficult to replace in a short time.
In recent years, the RCEP regional market, with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand as its foundation and China as its growth engine, has become increasingly prominent in the global textile and apparel industry. The release of policy dividends from RCEP will help reconstruct the industrial value chain in East Asia, accelerate the economic recovery process of various countries, and create more comprehensive and in-depth regional industrial cooperation opportunities for our country.
The effects of weak consumption, purchasing shifts, and Sino-US frictions in the U.S. and European markets are occurring in parallel. On the basis of efforts to stabilize and win orders from traditional developed economies, my country's textile and apparel foreign trade companies can actively explore the markets of countries along the "Belt and Road".
