In recent years, synthetic fiber production capacity has continued to expand. As the largest category of synthetic fibers, the growth rate of polyester production capacity has remained above 7%. However, after entering 2024, the growth rate of polyester filament production capacity has begun to slow down. At the same time, the downstream weaving production capacity has declined. Still expanding, demand continues to grow, polyester filament may enter a boom cycle.
In recent years, my country's polyester filament production capacity has continued to expand. According to data, in 2023, domestic polyester filament production capacity will be 43.16 million tons. Since 2019, leading companies represented by Tongkun and Xinfengming have significantly expanded their production capacity in the context of the peak period of domestic private refining and chemical production. Domestic polyester filament production capacity has grown rapidly, especially in the past two years, an additional 8.4 million tons of production capacity will be added . Among them, there will be 3.8 million tons added in 2019, 2.27 million tons added in 2020, 2.44 million tons added in 2021, 3.93 million tons added in 2022, and 4.67 million tons added in 2023. A total of more than 15 million tons have been put into production in the past five years. During this period, backward production capacity and policy factors have affected the withdrawal of more than 2 million tons of production capacity. The compound growth rate of production capacity remains at a high level of 7.6%.
According to statistics from the China Chemical Fiber Association, chemical fiber output in 2023 will be 68.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. Among them, the output of lyocell fiber was 336,000 tons, a significant increase of 138.3% year-on-year; the output of spandex was 960,000 tons, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year; and the output of polyester was 57.02 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year.
The difference from the previous round of production expansion cycle is that the latest round of new production equipment is mainly based on differentiated direct spinning production capacity. The six domestic polyester leading companies accounted for more than 90% of the new production capacity, and the industry concentration has further increased. Enhance.
CR6 (Tongkun, Hengyi, Shenghong, Hengli, Rongsheng, Xinfengming), which is also the leading listed company in the industry, basically occupies more than 80% of the market share in the polyester industry chain, and leading companies basically dominate the entire industry With the new production capacity, it is expected that the industry concentration will further increase in the future, and the company will have strong bargaining power with downstream customers.
According to statistics from Baichuan Yingfu, only about 1.81 million tons of new production capacity is expected to be added in the next three years, accounting for less than 4% of the total production capacity. It is expected that the new production capacity of the filament yarn industry in 2024 will be only 900,000 tons.
While polyester filament production capacity is growing rapidly, old and backward production capacity is also being eliminated. 1.2 million tons will be eliminated in 2021, 1.75 million tons will be eliminated in 2022, and 1.01 million tons will be eliminated in 2023.
If the relocation of some existing production capacity and the further clearance of outdated production capacity are taken into account, it is expected that the actual net new production capacity in 2024 may be negative.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry will decrease by 9.80% year-on-year in 2023. However, judging from the actual new production capacity, 2023 is still a period of concentrated investment, and the production capacity of the chemical fiber industry has inertial growth. The decline in fixed asset investment means that the current production expansion cycle of the chemical fiber industry is over. In the future, the pressure on new production capacity in the industry will be eased.
According to statistics from the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, my country's polyester filament production and demand will continue to grow from 2017 to 2023, with a compound growth rate of 6.03% for output and a compound growth rate of 4.93% for demand. Affected by the decline in downstream textile and apparel demand in 2022, polyester filament yarn production and demand will continue to grow. Silk consumption decreased by 9.44% year-on-year, which was also the first negative growth in the past 12 years. With the recovery of demand in the downstream textile and apparel industry, the demand growth rate of polyester filament has also rebounded significantly. It is expected that the demand growth rate of polyester filament will rebound to more than 10% in 2024.
Downstream texturing equipment continues to increase. According to statistics from the Chemical Fiber Information Network, after nearly 2,000 units were added each year in 2021 and 2022, there will be approximately 1,100 new texturing equipment in 2023 to 25,380 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. In terms of weaving, following the decline in sales of integrated looms in 2022, sales of integrated looms have begun to rebound significantly in the second half of 2023. The continued increase in texturing equipment and the rebound in sales of integrated looms have effectively digested the new production capacity of polyester filament.
