​Radical stocking market is hard to come by!

    As the market enters the "Golden Nine" consumption peak season, terminal orders in the chemical fiber industry have picked up. Affected by this, the operating load of the polyester and weaving industries has begun to rebound slightly. As of September 6, the domestic polyester and terminal weaving operating loads were 90.84% and 72% respectively, up 8.28 percentage points and 10 percentage points respectively from the same period last year.
    However, there are still uncertainties in the downstream demand for chemical fiber in recent weeks: First, although the shipment situation is good, the current peak season demand is gradually released, and it is difficult for downstream demand to rise further. Moreover, demand has entered the off-season at the end of October, and terminal demand has weakened seasonally. Secondly, although market orders have been good recently, there are no large orders, and downstream companies are still mainly replenishing goods for immediate needs. This shows that downstream companies are currently more cautious in stocking, and aggressive stocking is unlikely to occur.
    Affected by the decline of weaving's advance stocking, polyester inventory has accumulated. The overall performance of polyester filament factory production and sales is average. As of September 7, POY factory inventory is 11.3 days, +0.5 days; FDY factory inventory is 16.8 days, +0.3 days ;DTY inventory at 24.5 days, +0.8 days.
    The overall profitability of the polyester industry is not ideal, with most products at a loss. As of the end of August, the average losses of polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester filament POY, polyester filament FDY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester industrial yarn were 45 yuan/ton, 235 yuan/ton, 125 yuan/ton, and 85 yuan respectively. / ton, 230 yuan / ton, 585 yuan / ton. Among the major categories of products in the polyester industry, only polyester filament DTY is currently profitable, with an average profit of 225 yuan/ton.
Although the start-up load of the polyester industry is at a high level, the subsequent pressure is not small. It is currently reported that the polyester load in the Xiaoshao region has been reduced or exceeded expectations. According to statistics, the total polyester production capacity in the Xiaoshao region is more than 11 million tons. From mid-September to October The limited production capacity involved is currently around 3.13 million tons. In addition, other companies in Xiaoshao may also reduce production according to distance requirements; industrial supply and demand are gradually weakening.
    Overall, the downstream polyester and weaving industries of the chemical fiber industry are in peak season, the operating load is at a high level, and market orders are acceptable. However, the operating conditions of the polyester industry are not ideal. The main reason for maintaining high operating conditions is that orders are still acceptable. As the peak consumption season comes to an end, the weakening of the demand side will inevitably lead to a decrease in operating load, and the demand is not sustainable. Polyester filament doesn’t have much room to go up.