Some yarn factories with higher costs will exit the market or be acquired, and the competition in the polyester staple fiber market will become increasingly fierce

  With the continuous release of new production capacity and the growth of old production capacity, the competition in the short fiber market will become increasingly fierce in the situation of continuous expansion of the supply side. In addition, with the outward transfer of labor-intensive industries and the rise of international trade barriers, China's traditional textile industry is growing slowly, and the spinning industry, as an important consumer market for cotton and polyester short fibers, is greatly affected. Although the reduction in polyester costs has highlighted the price advantage of polyester staple fibers, it is expected that the growth in consumption will not exceed the growth on the supply side, and the competitive pressure faced by the polyester staple fiber industry may gradually increase. The release of new short fiber production capacity in 2024 is concentrated in the second half of the year, with significant supply pressure throughout the year. As a result, the focus of market transaction prices has declined, and the situation of low processing fees may be maintained. The price range is around 7000 to 8000 yuan/ton. From 2025 to 2026, the production capacity of short fibers will continue to expand, but the expansion of downstream yarn factories is limited. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, some factories with higher costs will exit the market or be acquired. From 2027 to 2028, after the clearance of production capacity, the pressure on short fiber supply will be somewhat alleviated, and industry profits are expected to increase at that time.