The century-long transformation continues to accelerate

Dec 16, 2024

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  On the evening of December 2, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a "strengthened" new regulation on export control, further restricting the development of China's artificial intelligence and advanced semiconductors. This is also the third round of comprehensive crackdown and control on China's semiconductor industry after October 2022 and October 2023. On December 3, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on strengthening export controls on relevant dual-use items to the United States. In principle, gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials related dual-use items will not be allowed to be exported to the United States; for the export of graphite dual-use items to the United States, stricter end-user and end-use reviews will be implemented.

  In recent years, the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Red Sea crisis, the Bangladesh riots... Various black swan events have erupted one after another, and textile workers have always felt that a major change that has not been seen in a century is happening. In the past month, the relevant situation has evolved rapidly, and the century-old changes have been accelerating. Especially with the upcoming change of government in the US government, the Democratic government has a feeling of "even if there is a flood after death" before the change of government. It spends money like water, and its policy towards China has suddenly become tougher than in the past few years. The sanctions on semiconductors and my country's rapid countermeasures have also accelerated the decoupling of China and the United States in the semiconductor field. In the past few years, whether it is freight, exchange rate, raw material prices or even normal foreign trade transactions, textile companies have been more or less affected by the dramatic changes in the international situation, and the interweaving of internal and external factors has made the current market situation not good. However, it is foreseeable that in the future, black swan events will only increase, not decrease, but danger is also an opportunity, and the process of change is also a process of reshuffle, which may inject new vitality into the currently dormant market.

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