In June, the domestic polyester filament market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Among them, polyester FDY fell the most obviously, with a monthly decline of 4.74%, followed by a decline of polyester DTY of 1.38%, and polyester POY remained unchanged from the beginning of the month. At present, polyester POY (150D/48F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is priced at 5500-5600 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) is priced at 5850-6110 yuan/ton. Polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) 6850-7400 yuan/ton. Since June, the rise in international crude oil has driven up the prices of polyester raw materials, thereby stimulating the price increase of polyester yarns. But starting in the middle of the month, with the deepening of the off-season atmosphere in the textile industry, especially after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, crude oil futures fell, and polyester yarn prices began to fall following it.
In June, crude oil was still in the production reduction cycle, and prices continued to rise volatility, superimposing the Asian PX device routine and unplanned maintenance and production reduction events. PX was boosted by this and appeared to bottom out. As of June 28, the Asian regional closing price was 556 USD/ton FOB Korea and USD 576/ton CFR China, the domestic PX price was 4300 yuan/ton, up 4.88% from the beginning of the month and down 38.57% year-on-year. The domestic PTA spot market price showed an upward trend of "M" type shocks. Facing the high inventory and terminal traditional low season, the weak demand dragged down. Compared with May, the increase has narrowed. The average market price as of June 29 is 3621 yuan/ Tons, up 1.89% from the beginning of the month, down 43.11%% year-on-year.
The downstream terminal textile weaving market has gradually deepened the atmosphere in the off-season. It is even more difficult in the off-season of the special year. Demand is weak and the transaction is light. Most weaving companies have begun to significantly reduce the operating rate, and the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has appeared again. It fell back slightly to below 61%. In the past, in general, manufacturers before the holiday had more or less stockpiling operations, but before the Dragon Boat Festival this holiday, the manufacturers were not motivated to restock. It is understood that the current inventory of grey cloths in Shengze area has risen to about 43-44 days, about 2-3 days higher than the same period last year, about 19 days higher than the same period in 2018, and about 16 days higher than the same period in 2017.
The export pressure on textile foreign trade is still very high. According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in May 2020, China’s textile and apparel exports amounted to US$29.554 billion, an increase of 38.36% month-on-month, of which exports of apparel (including apparel and clothing accessories) were 8.905 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 26.93%. From January to May 2020, my country's cumulative exports of textiles and apparel amounted to US$97.965 billion, down 0.80% year-on-year, of which the cumulative export of apparel was US$38.131 billion, down 22.80% year-on-year.
In the context of high inventories, the PTA market is likely to weaken in the future market, and the raw material end is insufficient. At the same time, the traditional off-season characteristics of textile terminals have become more and more obvious, the domestic demand is sluggish, and it is difficult to make breakthroughs in export. Therefore, in the absence of a favorable boost, the overall price of polyester filament in July is more likely to weaken.
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