The surplus pattern is difficult to change, and processing costs may remain low for a long time

    According to historical data, the operating rate of terminal looms will significantly decrease from late October or early November. The seasonal pattern of the terminals is relatively obvious, and it is estimated that demand will also show a turning point in late October. The negative feedback from the terminals to the polyester end still needs to pay attention to the profit and storage capacity of polyester products. For polyester enterprises, there is still time before the Spring Festival, and the current storage capacity and cash flow pressure are not high. The probability of large-scale negative reduction for polyester enterprises before the festival is not high.
    From a supply perspective, with an increase in PTA maintenance devices and limited contribution from new device production in October, it is expected that the increase in PTA production in October will be limited. With the completion of maintenance, it is expected that PTA production in November and December will reach new highs.
    In terms of supply and demand gap, in October, due to the increase in maintenance partially offsetting the increase in new production capacity, and the temporary high starting load of polyester, it is estimated that the accumulation of supply and demand in October will narrow. Supply from November to December may significantly rebound, and demand side polyester production is expected to decline after the peak season. Support for PTA demand is slightly weak, as it is estimated that PTA may accumulate significantly in November to December.
    In terms of processing costs, PTA is still in a large production cycle, with a higher production capacity growth rate than the demand growth rate of polyester. The surplus pattern is difficult to change, and new investment devices are better than old ones in terms of production technology and energy consumption. In the context of the elimination of old devices, new investment devices with low marginal costs and complete industrial chains are more competitive. The long-term low or normal PTA processing profit is expected to be below 300 yuan/ton based on the marginal cost of PTA new equipment.