With the end of October, the traditional peak season of the polyester industry chain has also come to an end. In the past half month, the average production and sales of polyester filament has been less than 50%. This phenomenon has attracted the attention of market participants.
During the National Day holiday, terminals are temporarily on holiday. The production and sales of polyester factories are generally light, with the production and sales rate remaining at around 20%, and the inventory accumulation is obvious. The POY and FDY equity inventories of polyester factories increased from 11.7 and 12.1 days on the 27th before the holiday to 17.7 and 18.1 days on the 7th after the holiday respectively. Since the holiday, although the production and sales of polyester yarn have been weak most of the time, there have been 4 days of pulse-type surges in volume, respectively on the 11th, 14th, 23rd, and 29th. The equity inventory of polyester factories dropped slightly from the previous day. As of October 29, the POY and FDY equity inventories of polyester factories were basically around 17 days.
On the one hand, based on factors in the upstream raw material market, bulk textile raw materials such as PTA have experienced large changes, especially after the futures market fell. Driven by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the price drop led to a lack of confidence in downstream purchasing.
On the other hand, the pace of downstream procurement has changed. Against the background of overcapacity of raw materials, the way polyester factories open gates and release water has changed. In the past, it was open to the end, which gave traders many business opportunities. Now, polyester factories only need to ensure that the water level of the 'barrier lake' does not threaten their later accumulation of storage and wait for the opportunity. This actually protects the weaving factory, but it includes Intermediary traders such as raw materials and fabrics cannot earn the price difference, so weaving factories do not need to consider stocking up on raw material inventories. There are fewer surges and falls, which naturally cannot drive the speculation of traders, and every promotion will increase the price to a certain extent. Most of the improvement in production and sales today has been absorbed by weaving, which also proves the sustainability of weaving orders and the decrease in profits from fabric orders.
It is worth mentioning that as the end of the month approaches again, will the market usher in another month-end concentrated sales promotion and replenishment? According to relevant news: On October 29, the polyester filament market started a month-end promotion. The price of this promotion is at least 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous promotion. The price of some products or specifications with pressure on inventory will be even lower.
The textile environment this year is not very prosperous. There are orders in the market, but competition in the industry is fierce, resulting in the peak season of the entire market being less prominent. In addition, the current market trend has shifted from order-based to spot-based, and the market needs to prepare goods in advance. As a result, the off-peak and peak seasons are not very obvious. Now the production capacity of the entire industry chain has become a state of excess in the upper and mid-range and insufficient terminal demand.
Especially in October, downstream fabric companies said that the number of orders received was not as good as in September. Recently, domestic and foreign trade orders have been generally issued. Domestic trade orders are mainly online e-commerce orders for hard-demand winter fabrics. Domestic trade brands and market orders still maintain the hard-demand mode, mainly for winter warm thick woven fabrics and down fabrics. At present, there is still a large gap in order volume compared with previous years, and large goods are issued in a narrowed manner. Foreign trade orders are still mainly based on sporadic placement of small tanks for some brands, and fewer large goods are issued.
Terminal demand is not large, and the delivery speed of gray fabrics from weaving manufacturers is slow, the inventory quantity is rising, and manufacturers have difficulties in capital turnover. With less liquidity on hand, weaving manufacturers will naturally not purchase excess raw materials beyond the orders. In addition, as the end of the year approaches, the peak period of need for cash will come, and Boss Bu will not use cash casually.
Although industrial supply and demand has improved in the short term, it is still not enough to support the absolute price trend; in the future, with the restart of equipment and the commissioning of new equipment, the pressure on its own supply will still be high. At the same time, the terminal textile peak season is about to end, and industry insiders are pessimistic about terminal consumption. Therefore, it is difficult for the production and sales of polyester filament to improve in the later period.
