After entering 2023, the speed of new production capacity in the domestic polyester industry will be significantly accelerated. Up to now, the new production capacity of the industry has reached 5 million tons during the year, which is nearly double the level compared with the same period last year.
The macro sentiment inside and outside the market is still pessimistic, PTA may continue to run weakly.
At the macro level, GoTen Futures pointed out that Saudi Arabia announced an additional oil production cut of 1 million barrels per day in July, and OPEC+’s existing production cuts have been extended to 2024. With the support of production cuts and the summer travel peak, there is still room for crude oil to rise. The U.S. added 339,000 non-farm payrolls in May, far exceeding the expected 195,000. During this period, the macro-anxiety in the internal and external markets has eased but is still pessimistic. Pay attention to the Fed’s interest rate hike in June and market expectations.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Jinxin Futures said that the price of crude oil at the cost side has weakened recently, and the benefits of OPEC+ production cuts have been basically digested. The market has turned to the logic of weak demand, and short-term crude oil continues to be under pressure. The supply of pta turned loose, and the operating rate rebounded significantly last week. There are still expectations for accumulation in the long-term, but the current low processing fee supports the price. On the demand side, although the downstream operating rate is still at a high level, it is gradually showing a downward trend month-on-month. With the successive delivery of orders, the pta or accumulated inventory will trend after the demand weakens. In the short term, it is still mainly driven by cost, and it is expected to continue to run weakly.
Comprehensive overview:
Oil prices have rebounded strongly, polyester raw materials are warmer, the market sentiment will be boosted, and the production and sales data in the day are expected to improve. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will fluctuate within a narrow range today.
