Downstream Polyester Capacity Expansion And Record Breaking Demand With A Year-on-year Growth Rate Of 14%

  2023 is also the peak year for downstream polyester expansion, with a new polyester production capacity exceeding 10 million tons throughout the year. Monthly polyester production has hit a new historical high five times this year, with a significant increase in PTA consumption. It is estimated that the PTA consumption in the polyester and non polyester sectors will total 57.97 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14%, which largely offsets the pressure of PTA supply increment.
  From a monthly perspective, the low point of monthly polyester production is in February and the high point is in December, which is close to the high and low points of PTA monthly production. The polyester production in February was at a low point, mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday diluting the market situation, and the terminal loom operating rate dropped to the freezing point of the year. Demand feedback was negative from bottom to top, and polyester factories mainly reduced production. In addition, February only had 28 natural days, so the polyester production in February was relatively low, even lower than the same period in 2022. The monthly production of polyester in December was at a high point, mainly due to the continuous production of new polyester production capacity, and the higher operating rate of terminal looms compared to the same period in previous years. The overall polyester inventory was not high, and the polyester factory maintained a relatively high operating load.
  It is estimated that PTA exports will reach a new historical high in 2023, with 3.291 million tons of PTA exports from January to November, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year. The average monthly export of PTA from January to November is 199000 tons, and the export volume in December may be slightly lower than the average from January to November. It is estimated that the PTA export volume for the whole year of 2023 will be around 3.57 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The main reason for the record high export volume of PTA is that there are too many old PTA devices abroad, and some old devices are unstable in operation. Meanwhile, large-scale PTA devices in China continue to be put into operation, and integrated production capacity has enhanced the comprehensive competitiveness of PTA enterprises. The main reason for the slowdown in PTA export growth in 2023 is India's BIS issue. In the first half of the year, India was once China's largest PTA export trading partner, but in the second half, the number of PTA exports from China to India plummeted sharply.