Iran's decision to charge ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a dangerous copycat effect. For textile companies, the high costs of raw materials and logistics may be difficult to alleviate in the short term.
Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated at a seminar on Wednesday that establishing a tollbooth in the Strait of Malacca and dividing the revenue among Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore would generate a considerable sum. The Strait of Malacca, connecting the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, handling approximately 30% of global trade. 200 ships pass through the Strait of Malacca daily, twice the number passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Given that Indonesia possesses the longest and largest shipping lane, it would benefit the most from a tollbooth in Malacca. However, according to a Reuters report cited by the Global Times on the 24th, Sadewa changed his tune on the evening of the 22nd, emphasizing that Indonesia would not charge ships passing through the Strait of Malacca. Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiyono stated on the 23rd that Indonesia has no intention of imposing passage fees on the Strait of Malacca, emphasizing that any related policies must comply with the framework of international maritime law.
While charging fees for the Strait of Malacca is unlikely in the short term, charging fees for the Strait of Hormuz seems inevitable. According to Xinhua News Agency, citing Iran's Tasnim News Agency on the 26th, Iranian Parliament Deputy Speaker Nikozadeh stated that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has explicitly ordered that the Strait of Hormuz must not be restored to its pre-war status quo.
According to media reports on the 26th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi traveled to Pakistan for consultations. In addition to bilateral talks, Araqchi conveyed Iran's conditions for ending the war to Pakistan, including implementing a new legal system in the Strait of Hormuz, receiving compensation, ensuring no further military aggression, and lifting the maritime blockade. These conditions are unrelated to the nuclear issue. Iran suffered significant losses in the war and needs additional financial revenue for reconstruction, therefore it is unlikely to relinquish these conditions.
Today, international trade relies heavily on maritime trade. Compared to land-based trade, maritime trade is cheaper and can transport a larger quantity of goods, giving it a natural advantage in terms of cost-effectiveness. However, global maritime trade is heavily dependent on several key shipping lanes, one of which is the recently controversial Strait of Hormuz, while the Strait of Malacca is also a vital route for trade between East Asia and Europe. For the past few decades, under the framework of the new order established after World War II, the world has generally maintained peace, and unimpeded maritime routes have led to a golden age of international trade. In recent decades, the global textile supply chain has shifted several times, largely following a cost-driven logic, from which China has benefited-all based on unimpeded international trade. However, in recent years, various black swan events have occurred frequently. First, the Houthi rebels caused the "Red Sea crisis," forcing many ships that originally used the Suez Canal to detour around the Cape of Good Hope. More recently, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has prevented the transport of large quantities of crude oil by sea, forcing much trade back to land routes, which will significantly increase logistics costs.
Iran's decision to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent, provoked Malaysia, perhaps also instigated by the United States, leading them to consider similar ideas. However, due to widespread international opposition, they withdrew their statement, which inadvertently opened a Pandora's box. Many countries in the world now have political systems derived from Western electoral systems, and the public's attention is naturally drawn to outrageous statements. Therefore, in recent years, we have seen many non-mainstream politicians win elections, and proposals such as establishing toll booths on key roads around their countries naturally garner support. Malaysia's desire to charge tolls remained merely verbal, while Panama, the owner of another important international waterway, recently irrationally reclaimed a legitimate Chinese port, harming both itself and others. As the international situation further deteriorates, similar situations will only occur more frequently, making resilience one of the most important qualities for textile manufacturers engaged in foreign trade.
