Recently, PTA futures increased their positions sharply, breaking through the previous oscillation high. As of the close of the 7th, the main PTA contract rose sharply by 128 yuan/ton to 5,808 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.25%, hitting a new high in the past two months. It is understood that the 93.3% high polyester load announced last Thursday has boosted market confidence, but such a strong rise in a single day has exceeded industry expectations.
The reason is that from the perspective of PTA itself, the failure of a domestic mainstream supplier's device has dropped to 50% of the news, and the impact is expected to last for a week. In addition, the Yangtze River pick-up in the market was also affected to some extent due to the weather. On the whole, the surge in the market on the day was related to the slight improvement in the balance driven by the unplanned maintenance of the device.
From a macro perspective, Sino-US relations have recently shown signs of easing. The overall demand for domestic commodities is recovering. Real estate policies have been relaxed. The Ministry of Commerce has drafted a document to promote household consumption. Polyester has started production with low inventory and high demand. Market terminals remain relatively optimistic about demand. In addition, the cost side of crude oil PX has also been supported recently. There will be no new production capacity of PX in the second half of the year, and the processing fee will remain high for a long time.
Of course, the low inventory and high start of production in the polyester market is the biggest driver behind the recent surge in PTA. It is understood that the recent high production and high load of polyester have restored the confidence of the polyester industry, and the overall inventory of polyester is low. In particular, some differentiated polyester varieties are oversold, so polyester factories have plans to increase their burden in the near future.
At present, polyester is in a state of low inventory and high start-up. June gradually enters the off-season. The average monthly operating rate of polyester can reach about 92%. As of July 7, the immediate operating rate of polyester has reached 93.5%. The operating rate of polyester affected by the epidemic in the same period last year was only about 84%. Compared with the data of the past five years, the operating rate of polyester is at the upper level in the same period of five years. In her view, the operating rate of polyester in the off-season this summer is at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the overall performance is not short in the off-season.
At present, the processing difference in the PTA market is less than 300 yuan/ton, and the enterprise benefits are not good; but the start-up of downstream polyester remains at a high level near 93%, and there are still new devices that continue to be put into production. According to the news, in early July, there were two sets of polyester plants with a total of 1.05 million tons of new investment, and the polyester production capacity will be adjusted to 75.9 million tons. However, the current inventory of downstream polyester filaments is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past years, and is far lower than that of the same period last year. Therefore, the current product inventory has not caused obvious pressure on polyester factories, and it is expected that the polyester load will be maintained. Therefore, under the premise of strong rigid demand, the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is not prominent, and the driving force of PTA processing difference is not strong; however, as the temperature rises in various parts of the country and the fear of power cuts resumes, it may take the lead in the terminal weaving and printing and dyeing industry.
On the whole, the oil adjustment of aromatics and chemical demand are the important reasons for the strong price performance of aromatics in the past two years. After the scope of domestic refined oil consumption tax collection is expanded, the threshold for the flow of domestic aromatics and other chemical raw materials to the refined oil market will be raised, which is conducive to the return of chemical raw materials to the chemical market. At present, there are still some PX plants in China that are downgraded or shut down due to the shortage of raw materials. After the chemical raw materials return to the chemical market, there is room for improvement in the operating rate of these plants. The demand for overseas aromatics oil adjustment may weaken significantly by August, and the overseas PX supply is also expected to pick up. Therefore, the high valuation of PX may face downside risks, which is an important negative factor for the PTA market outlook. In addition, pay attention to the impact of power cuts that may be caused by high temperature weather on the terminal weaving industry.
