The dramatic evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation is becoming a core variable driving global risk asset pricing. Recently, the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has escalated beyond expectations, with the US Secretary of Defense extending the initial four-week estimate from the Trump administration to eight weeks or even longer. Simultaneously, Iranian officials swiftly denied reports of seeking negotiations, completely dispelling market illusions of a short-term resolution. This series of chain reactions has led to a sharp rise in risk aversion in global capital markets, with unprecedented concerns about supply chain disruptions.
As a crucial "valve" for global energy supply, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have become a key driver of oil prices. The latest shipping data shows that global oil logistics have effectively ground to a halt. As a result, international oil prices have shown unprecedented upward momentum. As of press time, WTI crude oil has firmly established itself above $78 per barrel, with a daily increase of 2.42%; Brent crude oil has broken through $85 per barrel, both setting new highs since July 2024.
As the conflict escalates, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, potentially further intensifying upward pressure on global oil prices.
Driven by strong cost pressures, the polyester industry chain experienced a comprehensive surge today. The main contracts for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol all hit their daily price limits, while polyester bottle chips also approached their limits, with the polyester industry as a whole leading the gains.
Geopolitical risks not only transmit cost pressures through rising oil prices but have also directly triggered market concerns about the supply of PX and ethylene glycol from the Middle East. Some domestic ethylene glycol plants have begun to take preventative measures to reduce operating rates, further exacerbating expectations of tight supply.
The continued surge in costs is rapidly spreading to the midstream and downstream of the industry chain, forcing polyester plants to adjust their prices accordingly.
Some major polyester bottle chip manufacturers have suspended quotations; a few major bottle chip manufacturers raised prices for the fourth time today by 100 yuan, a cumulative increase of 410 yuan compared to yesterday.
Looking ahead, geopolitical risks are likely to remain the core variable dominating the oil market and downstream industry chain. As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues, global energy supplies will face unprecedented strain, with persistent pressure from supply disruptions in crude oil, raising the possibility of further price increases.
Against this backdrop, strong cost support will continue to dominate pricing logic in the polyester industry chain, with PX and PTA expected to maintain high prices. Downstream polyester plants, facing persistent cost pressures, may be forced to continue adjusting prices, and there is even a possibility of wider price freezes and hoarding, leading to profound cost transmission and profit restructuring within the industry.
Faced with geopolitical risks causing energy supply shortages and strong cost support, the polyester industry chain is undergoing profound profit restructuring and a reshuffling of its competitive landscape. At this critical juncture filled with challenges and opportunities, the industry urgently needs to pool its forward-looking vision and jointly explore solutions.
