In March, many raw materials in the polyester chain entered the maintenance season. Taking PTA as an example, according to Everbright Futures, about 15.85 million tons/year of production capacity has maintenance plans in March, involving a monthly loss of 735,000 tons of TA and a reduction in PX demand of 481,000 tons. However, from the current TA processing fee, the average monthly processing fee is less than 190 yuan/ton, which means that the TA factory maintenance plan is likely to be implemented. At the same time, the PX unit also entered the maintenance season, but it was somewhat misaligned with the downstream TA maintenance season. In March, the TA maintenance capacity was more than the PX maintenance capacity, and for the PX price, both raw materials and demand formed a downward drag.
In terms of MEG, domestic coal-to-ethylene glycol units or large-scale enterprises postponed maintenance, resulting in actual maintenance volume less than the expected loss volume. Overseas maintenance in March and April also increased, and the European price premium of ethylene glycol expanded domestically, and the diversion of raw materials to China may decrease. Although the amount of ethylene glycol arriving at the port is forecast to decrease week by week, the accumulation of visible ethylene glycol stocks is increasing week by week, and the current port inventory level is close to 800,000 tons.
