PTA's Further Rise Is Doubtful

    There are two reasons for the current anti-seasonal increase in PTA. On the one hand, it is the strong support on the cost side. In the summer, the international crude oil supply and demand increase, and the PX production and burden on the raw material side are reduced, which has formed a strong support for PTA in terms of cost; On the one hand, the large PTA manufacturers at the production end have reduced their burdens and production, and since June, the demand for PTA in the downstream polyester industry has increased vigorously, and the price of PTA has risen sharply due to the increase in supply and demand.
    The accelerated rise of PTA last week was directly driven by the strengthening of oil prices and the reduction of the supply side (although the 2.5 million tons plant in South China was still successfully put into operation within the week after the rumor was delayed, the maintenance and load reduction of several other units made the average The operating rate still saw a decline of nearly 4 percentage points). These short-term positive factors are actually easy to change. With the bottoming out of the U.S. dollar index, the international oil price fell back quickly after briefly breaking through 80 USD/barrel; while the domestic integrated PTA manufacturers have a slight pressure on processing fees. After the relief, it is also more inclined to increase the load of PTA to cash in the profit of PX at a high level. So the phenomenon seen in the market is that the rise of PTA slowed down in the second half of last week, and it started a sharp correction on Friday night.
    But if you think about it further, the higher elasticity of the supply side than the demand side has always been the core factor driving the current round of PTA rise (it can be traced back to the end of May) and even the entire PTA market in 2022-2023. Under the current situation of high start-up of the downstream polyester end and low profit of PTA itself, the more flexible PTA supply end cannot keep matching the demand end, so the PTA market continues to show a volatile rising market with sharp divergence between long and short.