PTA Boss Hit A New Low Since Listing!

  After rising and falling on the day of listing, the trend of PX futures continued to weaken. Affected by factors such as weak demand for gasoline blending, falling cost crude oil prices, and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, the focus of PX prices continues to shift downwards. On the night of December 5th, the price of PX's main 2405 contract fell to 8110 yuan/ton, setting a new low since its listing.
The weakening of oil prices has driven the overall focus of the chemical industry sector down, and many varieties have recently hit new lows in recent months. As a part of the aromatic chain, PX has a strong correlation with crude oil, and it is reasonable for its price to be at a new low.
  In November, both PTA and ethylene glycol opened a downward trend.
  On the one hand, the decline in crude oil and PX prices has led to a downward shift in the cost of polyester raw materials. On the other hand, towards the end of the year, the supply and demand pattern of PTA itself has weakened, and the basis performance is relatively weak.
  In terms of demand, the terminal demand in November exceeded expectations and reached the best stage of the year, mainly due to the concentrated issuance of winter fabric orders after the sudden cold weather. Among them, the highest weaving operating rate increased to 85%, and the inventory of polyester raw fabrics decreased to below 20 days, reaching the lowest level of the year, lower than the same period in previous years. Some weaving enterprises also turned losses into profits. Entering December, terminal demand has significantly weakened, orders have decreased, and the winter replenishment market is coming to an end. However, the overall downstream inventory pressure is not high, and the short-term decline in weaving production rate is not significant. It is expected that the decline will accelerate by the end of December. The polyester process still has rigid support, with an operating rate of around 89%. However, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has become stronger, polyester sales have been hindered, and enterprise price reduction and promotion actions have increased, putting pressure on polyester prices. Therefore, there is little room for improvement in the current PTA demand, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the future.
  Based on the above analysis, as the end of the year approaches, raw materials are operating weakly, coupled with weak supply and demand, and it is expected that PTA contracts will be under pressure in the near month.