Since July 2023, the main contract price of PTA has been operating in the range of 5550-6206 yuan/ton. The price of PTA has gone out of an obvious trend. From a rhythm point of view, the price continued to rise in July and showed an obvious correction trend in August. After late August, the price continued to rise. With the sharp rise in prices and the willingness of PTA factories to reduce production suspensions, PTA prices have continued to rise above 6,000 yuan/ton. On the 12th, the PTA market once again broke through the previous high.
At the same time, PTA futures also experienced a rare market trend that day, ranking first in trading volume and position increase, and the net inflow of funds in the commodity futures market was 3.572 billion yuan during the day.
Supported by costs and a preference for rigid demand, the recent average monthly price of PTA in the East China market is 5,949 yuan/ton, the second highest price in the same period in five years.
In August, the monthly average monthly price increases of WTI crude oil, PX (CFR China), and PTA were 7%, 3%, and 2% respectively. The polyester industry chain showed a larger month-on-month increase in the upstream and smaller month-on-month increases in the midstream and downstream. Considering Affected by the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the 15% month-on-month average monthly price increase of the excipient acetic acid, the cost of PTA raw materials increased by about 3% month-on-month, and the cost-driven market reappeared.
However, with PTA leading the rise, the downstream weaving market, which was originally in a wait-and-see attitude, is no longer calm. It is reported that on the 12th, stimulated by the surge in raw materials, the production and sales volume of the polyester yarn market increased significantly, and the average market production and sales rebounded to around 200%.
The psychology of buying goods when the price rises is still vividly reflected in the downstream psychology of buying up and not buying down. The recent surge in PTA has compressed the profits of polyester products a lot, and the brothers who make filament, slices, bottle flakes, and polyester shorts are having a hard time.
From the short-term market perspective, PTA cost support continued in September, mainly due to three factors: the slowdown in U.S. interest rate hikes, the extension of production cuts by major oil-producing countries to support oil prices, and the relatively strong PX market amid expectations of PX destocking. First of all, the latest data shows that the US CPI dropped from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% in July 2023, while the US quarterly GDP growth also dropped from 3.7% in the first quarter of 2022 to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2023. Against the background of weakening inflationary pressure and slowing economic growth in the United States, the Federal Reserve will slow down its interest rate hikes, which will drive the commodity market to rise. Secondly, the major oil-producing countries have extended production cuts, and the oil-producing countries have obvious intentions to push up crude oil prices. Data in the past three years show that the price of US$70/barrel may be the mid-term bottom of crude oil, and crude oil will cost support the PTA market. Thirdly, with the expected commissioning of new PTA production capacity in the next few months, the probability of PX destocking is high, and the short-term PX market is expected to be strong. To sum up, it is estimated that cost support, as the main driving factor of the PTA market, will push up the PTA market in September.
At the same time, the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" peak demand season is approaching, and the operating rate of terminal looms is expected to rebound, especially the demand for polyester filament, which will support the PTA market. As of September 7, the inventory of polyester filament was 10.9 days for POY, 15.2 days for FDY, and 25.1 days for DTY. The overall inventory was at a medium to low level in recent years. It is estimated that from September to mid-to-early October, the operating rate of terminal looms may rise to more than 75%, and the demand for polyester filament will increase. Polyester filament may be slightly destocked, which will help polyester factories maintain high operating loads. At the beginning of September, terminal orders showed normal seasonal growth, and the order situation has improved, but the increase is not enough, and some terminal operators are relatively cautious. According to the current polyester maintenance plan, the polyester production in September is still estimated to be on the high side at around 5.86 million tons. Since September has one less natural day than August, if the daily production is estimated, the polyester production in September will be The output is slightly higher than that in August. In addition, a new production capacity of 300,000 tons of polyester bottle flakes is planned to be put into production in September. The peak year of polyester capacity expansion, the demand for PTA continues to increase. Overall, demand in September was still relatively high for the year, supporting the PTA market.
