Global trade is unpredictable, and the law that politics affects the economy has never changed. As Trump is about to take office as the US president again, what kind of tariff policy will be introduced and how much will it be? We need to wait until January next year to see his actual actions. Analysts believe that the tariff policy advocated by Trump during the campaign may actually have the effect of lowering GDP growth, and many of Trump's campaign donations come from Wall Street. Therefore, it is believed that he is unlikely to do anything to subvert the market. It may be more of a strategy to negotiate with other countries.
Due to the expectation of tax increases, the industry expects that the shipping market will see a rush to ship on the US line, which will lead to an increase in freight rates. From the performance of the domestic shipping market, the prices of shipping futures near-month contracts have continued to rise recently, and shipping stocks have risen sharply this year. After November 15, the global shipping market ushered in a wave of price increases as expected. Well-known shipping companies such as MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have issued price increase notices, involving many important routes from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa, Australia, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Africa. The price increase was affected by many factors, including the cabin control policy of European shipping companies, market concerns caused by Trump's campaign slogans, and the intensification of the Red Sea crisis. How long the price increase can last remains to be seen, but it is expected that before the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, the demand for stocking in Europe and the United States may bring a small peak season.
