International oil prices rose last Friday, with PX closing at US$1,043/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee at 215 yuan/ton. In terms of installations, Baihong's 2.5 million ton installation was restored and the pta load increased to 80.3%. On the demand side, polyester production started at 92.8%, and terminal weaving production rebounded to 70%. Taken together, PTA maintains a balanced pattern of supply and demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still not prominent.
Judging from the processing fees and cash flow of the industry chain, the current PX processing gap is still at a high level. The PX capacity utilization rate dropped slightly during the week, and the increase in PTA supply was obvious. PX-N was at 401.43 US dollars/ton that week, an increase of 2.68 US dollars/ton from the previous week. tons; PX-MX is at 55.10 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.29 US dollars/ton from the previous month; PTA is suffering serious losses. The PTA spot processing fee this cycle is 115.04 yuan/ton, a 29.66% decrease from the previous month (the cost of acetic acid is not considered for the time being); polyester varieties The cash flow of mid-filament yarn has shrunk due to low promotional prices. The cash flow of bottle flakes has also declined due to the recent intensive deployment of new production capacity. The cash flow of short fiber has been slightly alleviated and its own rigid demand support has been relatively stable. Repairs and improvements.
July and August in previous years have been the traditional off-season for textiles, but this year the load performance of weaving factories has been stable under the traditional off-season conditions.
According to incomplete statistics, the current polyester production capacity that may be restricted in the Xiaoshao area is about 2 million tons; the downstream weaving industry has not yet received a clear notice, and some local printing and dyeing companies may limit production by 30%-40%, but according to Judging from the current loom types (mainly circular knitting machines) and operating rates of printing and dyeing enterprises in Xiaoshao region, the current operating rate of Xiaoshao factories is only 37.09%, while the operating rate of Zhejiang printing and dyeing industry is 67.08%. In the sluggish state of its own operation, further The probability and extent of production restrictions are expected to be limited. However, we need to be vigilant about whether PTA factories with low processing fees have additional production reduction/maintenance plans.
Based on the above-mentioned costs and the performance of the supply and demand side, PTA equipment maintenance or shutdowns for some reasons have increased, and the continued low processing difference has led to an increase in the willingness of enterprises to carry out maintenance; however, the negative impact of the possible reduction of polyester load during the Asian Games will be partially offset by the positive benefits of PTA maintenance. Specifically Pay attention to the intensity of polyester production reduction. The demand for oil adjustment has weakened and PTA maintenance has been carried out. PX is expected to continue to weaken. Profits in the industry chain will be redistributed. The absolute price trend still depends on the performance of the oil market. After the profit of the ethylene glycol synthesis gas method has been restored, the load of coal chemical equipment has increased. Recent maintenance and restarts have coexisted, and the impact of mainland maintenance has weakened.
Excess is the long-term logic. After ethylene glycol fell into deep losses again, the absolute price fluctuated with the raw materials; it may be interspersed with the short- and medium-term logic of valuation restoration. The profits of the staple fiber industry have been restored, production has started smoothly, inventories are neutral, and they continue to passively follow the operation of raw materials.
