Since July, the production and sales data of polyester filaments have been running at more than 60% to 70%, compared with the previous 30% to 40% production and sales, and the temperature has rebounded significantly. During this period, the production and sales of factories often increased to 100% - 200% at night, and the market atmosphere improved. Is the boom in the polyester industry picking up?
It is understood that this market is mainly due to the continuous support of the cost side and the moderate replenishment of downstream positions.
From the perspective of raw materials, recently, multiple sets of PTA equipment have been intensively overhauled, involving a production capacity of about 10 million tons. The industry's operating rate has dropped from 79.15% in early July to 73.27%, and the current polyester operating rate has remained at a high level of 91%, supporting polyester. The price trend of main raw materials PX and PTA The difference between the supply and demand of PX and PTA is narrower than that in June, but the overall support is still there. The difference between the supply and demand of polyester and PTA is weaker, and the supply and demand structure of raw materials is generally better.
PTA is supported by good supply and demand, coupled with the continuous rise of international crude oil and the help of bull funds, its futures and spot prices continue to rise, while polyester filament is a raw material-oriented product, and its price is gradually rising.
Under the current situation of continuous support of polyester raw materials and polyester factories' continuous destocking, the supply of some specifications of polyester filaments is tight. When the downstream is worried about the demand coming, the price of raw materials will rise. Superimposed on the current low level of stocking of weaving raw materials, the factory is in the second half of the year. In preparation for winter fabrics, the willingness to stock up in advance has increased, and the production and sales data of polyester filaments have partially improved recently.
However, from the perspective of the terminal market, neither domestic sales nor export sales have substantially improved, and with the high temperature in summer, weaving and printing and dyeing enterprises are expected to limit electricity storage and production, and demand may decline.
At present, many areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have high-temperature and ultra-long standby time, and the residential electricity load continues to increase, which may affect the power distribution in the later period. It is not ruled out that the high-energy-consuming industries will shift peaks or limit start-up in the later period. In addition, because Xiaoshan, Shaoxing, Huzhou and other regions in Zhejiang are host cities for the Asian Games, it is currently heard that some companies in the Yaqian area of Xiaoshan have requested to reduce the stop, and the specific implementation will be implemented according to the notice of the relevant department.
At this stage, there are frequent news of power cuts, which are expected to affect the operation of downstream texturing, weaving and even printing and dyeing industries to a certain extent. In addition, enterprises are facing many difficulties such as financial constraints, order shortages, and profit compression, and production enthusiasm has declined. Therefore, under the reality of weak demand , The upward trend of the polyester filament market is difficult. On the whole, it is expected that the impact on the cost side in the first half of the year will be more critical. The polyester filament market may follow the rise of raw materials. As the inventory pressure of enterprises gradually increases, the impact of supply and demand in the second half of the year will be prominent, and the market will be at risk of decline .
