On July 9, the reciprocal tariff suspension period introduced by Trump will expire. If the negotiations fail, global textile companies will face high reciprocal tariffs. The future trend of tariff negotiations affects the lifeline of global trade and economy.
At this critical time, US President Trump and his Treasury Secretary Bensont made harsh remarks! Fox News reported that on Sunday (June 29), local time, Trump said in an interview broadcast on Fox News whether the tariff suspension period should be extended: "I don't think it is necessary." But then he added: "I can do that. It's no big deal." Since Trump took office, his positions on many policies have always been repeated. He said at a press conference last Friday that the US government can "do whatever it wants" and extend or shorten the period at will. He said he hoped the deadline would be shortened. "I really want to send a letter to every country and inform everyone, 'Congratulations, you have to start paying 25% tariffs.'" U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson warned that even if countries negotiate in good faith, they may still face significantly increased tariffs on July 9, and any potential extension of the tariff suspension period will be decided by President Trump. Reuters reported that Benson said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday (30th) that he expected a wave of trade agreements to emerge before July 9. Benson also pointed out: "Some countries are negotiating with us in good faith, but they should realize that if their stubborn attitude makes it impossible to reach an agreement in the negotiations, we may restore the tariff level of April 2. I hope this will not happen." At present, the tariff rate that mainstream textile exporters in the world, such as Southeast Asia, need to bear has been suspended to 10%, which has caused a situation in which American customers are rushing to import to a certain extent. But if the final result of the negotiations is not ideal, after July 9, the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on goods from many countries will be restored to the 11% to 50% tariff announced by Trump on April 2, and some customers have stopped placing orders. According to a reporter from the Pioneer Newspaper, Le Tien Thuong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group, said: The consolidated revenue in the first half of the year exceeded 900 billion VND, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and the profit nearly doubled. Thành Công and Sông Hồng soared 200% to 300% in order to deliver the goods before July 5. American customers have significantly slowed down their orders after July 10, and even suspended orders. The main reason is that customers need to re-evaluate the impact of tariff policies.
Although China and the United States have reduced the tax rates imposed by both sides after the Geneva negotiations, the actual tax rate remains at around 50%, but the tax rate in Southeast Asian countries is only 10%, and textiles there need to import a large amount of fabrics from China, which indirectly promotes the export of Chinese textiles. If the reciprocal tariffs are really restored, it will indeed have a great impact on textile exports in the second half of the year. For the United States, tariffs have always been a means, not an end. Trump's previous announcements of various tariff suspensions were not because he suddenly figured it out, but because the shelves of American supermarkets were almost empty. However, after a few months of restocking, the inventory of US dealers can be consumed for a while, so the tariff card has become an option for the United States. Reciprocal tariffs may indeed be restored at some point in the future. But in the long run, the return of US manufacturing is nowhere in sight, and textiles and clothing still need to be imported in large quantities. The total amount of imports may not change much, but will be concentrated in certain window periods. If the tariffs are really restored this time, those who want to export to the US market can only wait for the next window period.
