Some time ago, the conflict between Iran and Israel caused a sharp rise in international oil prices, and the center of gravity of polyester yarn prices continued to move upward, causing many weaving companies to express that they would stop production. Recently, Iran and Israel ceasefire, international oil prices plummeted, and polyester raw materials also fell, but it is easy to stop the machine, but it is difficult to start it again.
The 12-day Middle East geopolitical dispute has come to an end, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil has been fully waived during the week. Since mid-June, under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the international crude oil market has been rising, driven by the cost side, the PTA spot market has risen to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.43%, and the ethylene glycol spot market has risen to 4595 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.75%. As of June 26, the spot price of PTA fell to 5,020 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton from the highest point, a drop of 4.92%. The spot price of ethylene glycol fell to 4,355 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from the highest point, a drop of 5.22%. The mainstream models of polyester filament rose by 200-400 yuan/ton. After several days of high consolidation, the price of polyester filament finally began to loosen on June 26, and the polyester filament of some polyester factories fell by 100-150 yuan/ton. Some time ago, many textile people said that because of the continuous rise in raw material prices, the downstream could not accept it, so they had to start shutting down. Now that the price of polyester filament has begun to fall, will the operating rate rise?
When the author asked textile companies about the impact of the Middle East conflict on them, many textile people expressed a similar meaning. They believed that the current market itself was relatively poor, and the actual increase in raw materials was relatively limited, and the impact on them was actually not great. When there is real business, the increase of two to three hundred yuan in polyester yarn is completely within the acceptable range. The increase in polyester yarn is just a reason for enterprises to shut down. In the past two years, many weaving enterprises have been running machines just to hold on, and basically can't make any money. It's only because they have workers to support and have been used for so many years that they finally choose to start the machines. In the past two years, textile enterprises have more holidays. For holidays like National Day and May Day, enterprises didn't have holidays at all before, but now many have started holidays, and some enterprises have started to have two days off. Some time ago, a textile factory in Jiaxing gave workers a long holiday and it was on the hot search, but if it is put into the present, it is not even news.
The main reason for the downturn in the textile market is the insufficient number of orders. In the past two years, the textile industry has gradually transitioned from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Excess production capacity, huge inventory, and sluggish demand are the main reasons for suppressing market demand. Especially this year, the tariff storm after Trump took office has made the already poor orders worse. The recent 90-day buffer period for the extension of US tariffs has gradually expired, causing many customers to stop placing orders. Take Vietnam as an example. Currently, 60% of the fabrics of Vietnam's clothing exports come from China. Their exports to the United States have also driven China's fabric exports to a large extent. But now their exports are blocked, which has also affected China's fabric exports to a certain extent. On the other hand, due to the excessive inventory in the market, the current weaving companies are not willing to stock up, which further reduces the market's off-season start-up rate. Due to weather factors, June, July and August are the traditional off-seasons for the textile industry. Now that June has just come to an end, it is foreseeable that the next two months will also be very difficult.
