The demand for polyester and end-use textiles and garments is different, especially in the demand for export and foreign trade. The overall export of polyester products is improving and the growth rate is significant, but the growth rate of terminal textile and apparel exports has declined.
The growth rate of textile and clothing exports has declined.
According to China Customs data, from January to May 2023, China's textile and apparel exports totaled US$118.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, of which the cumulative export value of textiles was US$56.83 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%; down 1.1%. Due to the sluggish overseas terminal retail consumption and the high domestic textile and garment export base in the same period last year, the export growth rate has declined.
In recent years, whether it is the epidemic or the geopolitical dispute between two European countries last year, the inflation rate and interest rate in Europe and the United States have risen. Under this influence, the slowdown in economic and consumption growth has directly led to a slowdown in textile and apparel retail sales. Compared with the decline in the export growth rate of terminal textile and apparel products, the export status of upstream polyester products is relatively good.
Polyester export growth, market outlook is expected to fall.
According to China Customs data, China's polyester filament export volume from January to April 2023 was 1373.37 thousand tons (including polyester high-strength yarn, the same below), an increase of 33.04% year-on-year; among them, China's polyester filament export volume in April was 338.73 Thousand tons, a decrease of 6.90% from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 41.86%.
From the perspective of major export trading partners from January to April, exports to India ranked first with 192.60 thousand tons, and exports to India increased by 265.30% year-on-year, also ranking first.
From a specific analysis, in the case of flat domestic trade demand for polyester filament from January to April this year, the export of foreign trade has increased significantly-the export volume of polyester filament from January to April in 2023 was 1373.37 thousand tons, an increase of 341.06 thousand tons year-on-year Among them, the export to India was 192.60 thousand tons, an increase of 139.88 thousand tons year-on-year. The export increase of India alone accounted for more than 41% of the overall polyester filament export increase. It can be said that the polyester filament trade between China and India has increased to the greatest extent. It has stimulated the positive increase of China's total polyester filament export volume.
Although the start of polyester production has broken through the 90% mark! How likely is it that there will be a large-scale load reduction in the future?
Recently, the profits of polyester downstream products have improved significantly, turning losses into profits, and the start-up of polyester has broken through the 90% mark.
At present, with the reduction of raw material prices and the further recovery of downstream demand, the overall start-up load of the polyester industry chain has increased, especially the slicing start-up load has been lifted faster, the overall downstream raw material purchase willingness has increased, and the raw material stock has increased. Level above 10 days. The stocking of raw materials at the terminal is still concentrated in 1-2 weeks, and some are around one month high.
In the early stage, polyester bucked the trend and went up. On the one hand, the consumption volume was obvious, and most of the demand for orders in March-April was placed behind. In addition, although domestic demand and exports have recovered to a certain extent, overseas clothing and gray fabrics are still in the process of being destocked, and consumption is relatively weak. Therefore, even if domestic demand picks up, it is difficult for foreign trade business to recover in the short term. In the next 2-3 months, overseas terminal orders may decrease significantly. On the other hand, the polyester load has continued to increase due to the good recovery of polyester profits and acceptable inventories.
Up to now, the high point of polyester load has exceeded 90%. This round of polyester load increase basically ended around the beginning of June, but it is expected to continue to maintain a high level before mid-June, and the next trend of decline needs to be judged according to the price situation of raw materials. As far as the current situation is concerned, the price of PTA has dropped significantly due to negative influences such as the US debt problem, expectations of interest rate hikes, and the risk of macroeconomic recession. Even if the burden of polyester has some support for PTA, the collapse of the cost side and the expectation of sufficient supply will also drag down the market price of PTA. In the short term, the supply and demand pattern of PTA is good, and the bottom is supported; in the medium and long term, PTA still lacks upward momentum, and attention should be paid to cost and supply performance.
The negative feedback phenomenon caused by the surge of PTA in the early stage is obvious to all. If the raw materials cannot continue to maintain a low level in the later period, it will have an adverse impact on the release of terminal demand. The next June to July is the traditional off-season for domestic textile and clothing. The demand performance was better than expected, but after the revaluation of commodities in May, the logic of bottom-buying in the downstream generally seems to be difficult to continue in June-July. At the same time, from the perspective of tracking the start-up of downstream weaving, finished product inventory and terminal order index, there are varying degrees of bearish expectations. It is expected that the downstream start-up load will usher in a significant decline after mid-June, and negative feedback will also gradually put pressure on the gathering In the ester product link, by then, the polyester industry may once again experience a phased reduction.
However, considering the current polyester inventory (take polyester filament as an example), the average inventory of POY is less than 15 days, so even if the load of downstream looms is reduced as scheduled, the load reduction of polyester under the influence of negative demand feedback must be placed downstream, at least the entire Looking at June, the possibility of large-scale load reduction of polyester is very small.
