The spring of international crude oil this year is a bit gloomy. Judging from the monthly trend, it has been declining all the way. Recently, international oil prices have fallen for four consecutive weeks.
With the decline of the big brother of crude oil, according to price monitoring, the downside risk of the polyester filament market has gradually increased in the past month. Since the weekend, most polyester filament factories have lowered their quotations or even expanded their discounts. However, the actual downstream users are not willing to take goods. They replenished more before May 1st, and the cost side has insufficient support in the near future. The price of polyester filaments has been on a downward trend since April. Considering the limited number of new orders placed by end users, the willingness to stock up is relatively low. Most customers choose to continue to wait and see, or consume the stock in hand first.
Polyester factories have achieved the purpose of destocking through price reduction promotions, which has promoted production and sales in a short period of time, but it has not really improved the contradiction between supply and demand. Weak terminal demand is still the main reason for restricting price increases. Specifically, the promotion of polyester filament factories has entered the pulse mode again. Every time, the production and sales of the day are heavy, but the upstream raw materials have not been consumed, and there is no high desire to purchase, but they are cautious about the market.
From the inventory of terminal weaving sample enterprises in 2023, it can be seen that the overall level remains low and volatile. Compared with 2021 and 2022, the number of inventory days is mostly oscillating below 20 days. Most weaving enterprises consider financial pressure and inventory pressure. Choose a small amount of centralized stocking, the time is mostly around 15-20 days, and the lower one is less than 10 days. In the follow-up, weaving enterprises mainly choose short-frequency stocking for the number of raw material stocking days.
But on the other hand, judging from the inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY, the inventory of DTY is relatively high, while the inventory of POY is low. For polyester filament factories, the inventory pressure is not large, and there is still pressure expected.
At present, the price of polyester filament is in a fluctuating downward trend, and most of the equipment restarted in May, and the supply is gradually increasing. However, the actual load of the terminal weaving sample enterprises is difficult to increase, and the actual demand is difficult to follow up. It is difficult to improve the price of polyester filament. Downside expectations.
