Recently, cotton prices have stabilized around 16,500 yuan per ton, polyester staple fiber has fluctuated in the range of 8,000–8,500 yuan per ton, while viscose staple fiber and lyocell fiber have gradually risen to **13,300–13,500 yuan per ton and continue to move higher. Fiber prices have all risen to varying degrees compared with pre-Spring Festival levels, and a significant correction is unlikely in the short term.
As downstream manufacturers gradually exhaust their low-cost raw material inventories from earlier periods, they now face a critical question: whether to follow the price hikes. With production lines running continuously, steady material feeding is unavoidable. As raw material costs rise, yarn and fabric prices must be adjusted upward accordingly. If the downstream market cannot absorb these increases, the result will be either inventory accumulation or production cuts.
It is evident that yarn and fabric inventories were effectively reduced during the general price rally after the Spring Festival, significantly easing sales pressure for enterprises. However, inventories of cotton yarn and polyester yarn have started to pick up recently. Cotton yarn in particular shows a two-tiered market, with upward price pressure concentrated mainly on lower-end products. Meanwhile, operating rates at cotton and polyester yarn mills have begun to turn downward, indicating that downstream demand has reached a critical threshold of short-term tolerance.
In comparison, although new orders for viscose yarn and fabric enterprises have also slowed recently, their sales pressure remains mild in the short term after inventory destocking. Additionally, their profit margins have improved noticeably - cellulose fibers have not risen as sharply as cotton and polyester, and many downstream buyers increased their holdings early in the year, allowing most to turn from losses to profits. As such, they still maintain a certain buffer space for the time being.
Nevertheless, pressure is building, and the arrival of a tipping point is only a matter of time.
Faced with the complex situation of high fiber raw material prices and mounting downstream pressure, the industry urgently needs to build consensus and seek solutions together.
