The polyester raw material market has recently experienced dramatic fluctuations, far exceeding the expectations of textile industry professionals and posing significant challenges to the sector. Raw material prices have been on a rollercoaster ride.
Recently, news of rising raw material prices has flooded the social media feeds of textile workers. Last Saturday, major polyester manufacturers raised prices by 500 yuan/ton for polyester filament, followed by another 500 yuan/ton on Sunday. Differential products saw daily increases of 800-1000 yuan/ton. On Monday, March 9th, polyester filament prices surged by a staggering 1500-2000 yuan/ton in a single day.
Previously, influenced by rising crude oil prices, polyester filament prices had accumulated a nearly 1000 yuan/ton increase since early September, and nearly 4000 yuan/ton after the Spring Festival holiday, representing a total increase of 40%. However, on March 10th, crude oil prices plummeted, causing polyester filament prices to drop by 1000 yuan/ton. The downward trend continued on the 11th, only to surge again by 800 yuan/ton on the 12th. These dramatic short-term fluctuations in raw material prices have left textile companies bewildered and unable to conduct normal operations.
The downstream market is experiencing a stark contrast following the surge in raw material prices, leading to a clear market divergence. On one hand, textile companies are accelerating shipments, and dyeing plants are seeing booming business with long queues. On the other hand, some weaving companies are struggling to keep up. High raw material prices are enough to sustain companies with inventory, but those without inventory will suffer significant losses if they continue production at current prices, forcing them to reduce or halt production.
Weaving mills in Anhui and Henan provinces have seen poor production after resuming operations following the Spring Festival. Companies in the Yangtze River Delta region, which typically operate at full capacity at this time of year, are now operating at only slightly over 70% capacity, with some even considering resuming holidays due to rising raw material prices. Although raw material prices plummeted on the 10th and 11th, they rebounded on the 12th and remain high, prompting textile companies to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
A rational response is needed; there's no need for excessive anxiety. Such epic fluctuations in raw material prices are almost impossible to predict beforehand. However, the textile industry has encountered similar "black swan" events multiple times in recent years. In 2025, the US suddenly announced retaliatory tariffs, bringing global textile exports to the US to a near standstill. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, and crude oil prices briefly approached $140, causing a short-term surge in polyester raw material prices. In 2020, the global public health crisis plunged the world economy into a downturn, with crude oil even experiencing negative prices. Having weathered these trials, the textile industry has gradually matured.
While the Chinese economy will be impacted to some extent by the spillover effects of the current Middle East crisis, the global impact will be relatively small. The need for a ceasefire is more urgent in Middle Eastern countries, Japan, South Korea, and Europe. Therefore, textile companies should not be overly anxious when dealing with raw material fluctuations. Markets are unpredictable, but time will provide a suitable solution. Companies should remain rational, actively seek coping strategies, and smoothly navigate this difficult period.
